MLB · live in beta
See what every bet on tonight's board is really worth. We price each game and prop ourselves, put our number next to the book's, and explain the gap in plain English, with the full workup underneath when you want it. Stop playing blind.
Free while the beta runs. No card. Just an account.
GreenSlips is a statistical research and modeling platform, not a gambling operator or sportsbook. We price markets and show our work; you place your own bets, at your own book.
Two tables to start the night on: every hitter and pitcher playing tonight with every market we carry, and every game with both starters and the lines. Everything else on this page is a way of going deeper on a row in one of them.
A scrollable board of the only bets that cleared the bar tonight. The claim is a sentence before it is a number, and the evidence sits directly underneath it.
The Feed is a filter first. Everything the model graded below the floor you set stays out of the column entirely.
Every post carries the reason it exists, as a badge you can switch off: an injury cascade, a heater, a wind reading, a stale number.
Bars, a line-movement table or a wind rose. Whichever one actually carries the argument, and nothing else.
Target, whiff rateHow often batters swing and miss., team total, vig. The glossary is built into the post, so nobody has to leave to look a word up.
Every market the engine priced tonight, in one sortable table, with the book's number and the model's fair number side by side.
The book's price includes its cut. The Terminal shows what the market implies once that cut is stripped, and what the model says instead.
Market, grade, book, edgeHow far the book's number sits from ours, in percentage points. Bigger means the price looks further from fair. threshold, first pitch. The board narrows to the handful of rows you would actually bet.
Nothing is promoted because it is a big name. The ordering is the number.
Start at the slate, end inside one hitter's platoon splitsHow a hitter does against left- versus right-handed pitching. The gap is often much bigger than people expect. against this pitcher's archetype. Nothing is hidden behind a summary score.
Bars run green when the game cleared tonight's number and volcanic when it did not. The hit rateHow often something has actually happened: 8 of the last 10 games, say. History, not a forecast. is the picture, not a percentage in a box.
PA, SO, HR, BA, SLG, wOBAWeighted On-Base Average: one number for a hitter's total offensive value, counting a home run for more than a walk., xwOBA and hard-hit rate, cut by handedness.
Head-to-head samples are usually too small to mean anything. Archetype sample sizes are not, so the page carries both.
LeashHow long a starting pitcher is likely to last: his expected pitch count and the chance he gets pulled., times through the order, bullpen behind him, arsenalThe set of pitches someone throws, with how often each is used and how well it works. and performance by batter type.
Matchup hit rate against the posted spread, a Monte CarloPlaying the game out thousands of times in simulation to see how often each result comes up. run of the game, the bullpen behind both starters, and what the wind is doing at this park tonight.
A solid rule at zero, a dashed rule at the spread. Bars that clear the dashed line are green; the ones that do not are not.
Spread, run totals and money line each redraw the same history against the number you are actually being offered.
Wind speed and direction over the field, temperature, rain chance and the park's own run environment.
Most trends are noise with a nice headline. The ones worth a bet are the ones several independent drivers point at simultaneously. Those are the only ones that surface.
Each trend shows which inputs agree: form, matchup, park, market movement. So you can discount the ones you do not believe.
A 9-for-10 run over ten games is not the same claim as 62% over four seasons, and the card never lets those look alike.
Every trend opens the player or the game behind it, so the claim can be checked rather than taken.
Build the slip, then see what it is actually worth: the book's odds, the true fair odds, the cut being taken out of it, and whether the expected valueWhat a bet is worth on average if you could place it over and over. Positive means the price is in your favour. survives.
Book odds, true fair odds, the bookmaker's cut and the expected value, stated as four numbers rather than implied by one.
Two legs from the same game are not independent, and the Pit will say so rather than quietly multiplying them together.
The same slip priced at every book we read, best number first, so shopping it takes a glance instead of a row of tabs.
Plans
Every tier is one sport's full model: the same engine, pointed at a different calendar. Baseball is free while the beta runs; all it takes is an account. Football and college football are in development, and we will announce their pricing when they are ready.
Freewhile the beta runs
The full MLB model. Free account, no card, no tier, no limits.
TBApricing announced at launch
The same engine pointed at Sunday.
TBApricing announced at launch
Saturday's board is the biggest inefficiency we know of.
Mobile
The phone build is the one we care most about. A bet is decided standing up, not at a desk. Native iOS and Android are in development now. Mail us and we will send one message when they land, and nothing else.
Email us to be told firstGoes straight to admin@greenslips.pro. No list, no tracking, one message when the builds land.
